Justin Verlander will turn 42 before the start of next season. He also eyes the « big shiny number » of 300 career wins. As he takes the mound Monday with 260 wins on his ledger, is the future Hall of Famer’s goal even plausible? Verlander needs 40 more wins to hit 300, and this season he’s only started 11 times and earned a win in 3 of them.
The last pitchers to enter the 300 win club this century are:
– Randy Johnson (303)
– Tom Glavine (305)
– Greg Maddux (355)
– Roger Clemens (354)
Nearby-Dress-6332
No. He’s probably got one more season in him and hasn’t won more than 20 in a season since 2019.
dawgstein94
No effing way.
hjugm
Very unlikely, but after Pujols had a renaissance with the cardinals and got to 700, I’ll think anything is possible
DecoyOne
Sure, he just needs to start managing instead.
Take over the White Sox and he can get those last 40 by 2026.
TheSportsKidd
No.
sabersbucks12
It really really sucks that he effectively lost all of 2020 and 2021. If he hadn’t, he would very likely be somewhere in the 290s today and it would be a no doubter.
grimace24
No. If this was the late 1990s or early 2000 maybe. The game has changed too much for him to be 20+ game winner effective.
no_one_canoe
After 2019, he needed 75, and he had averaged 15 a year up until that point. Five more years, maybe six if his pace slipped a bit, finish in his age 41 or age 42 season? Easy.
Well, it’s been five years now, and he’s still 40 short. Can he pull three more vintage JV seasons out of his hat? I kinda doubt it. COVID won’t happen again, but injuries will.
HenrikCrown
He’d have to Jamie Moyer it for like 4-5 seasons. Don’t think he has that in him but the allure of the 300 dub club might be too tempting.
tyler-86
Maybe if he learns a knuckleball. Otherwise, no.
Character-Owl9408
He will if he wants it. He has enough in the tank to pitch a few more years, and enough name value to keep his name in a rotation even if hes below average. But it all depends on if he wants to pitch that long.
St8OuttaMilltown
Probably not, but he’s still going to the hall of fame
HoserRoyal
no
but maybe?
it’s not impossible
Good_Nyborg
Maybe if they were still in the NL Central.
frododrogo
Not likely. He’ll probably try to pitch on and off till he’s 44 or 45, and top out in the low 270s.
pro_n00b
I dont thnk he’ll get there man. Man, with this pitch clock and presumed related pitching injuries, 200 wins may be even a reach in the future
SwolheiOhtani
He still has good velo on his fastball, if he can have 22+ starts next year I think he’ll be in a good position
factionssharpy
I don’t think so.
It’s a tall order, but Nolan Ryan, Phil Niekro, Randy Johnson, Jamie Moyer, Bartolo Colon, and Charlie Hough all put up 40+ wins after age 41. Warren Spahn and Tommy John approached 40. Spahn is the only one of those who is really outside of recent history. That’s a pretty wide range of pitcher types – knuckleballers, finesse pitchers, flamethrowers.
Only Ryan and Johnson were really throwing hard in old age. It does seem that Verlander has lost a little velocity, so he’ll have to adjust, and he’s clearly not the same pitcher he was just a couple years ago.
I think he goes one more year, misses some time, and realizes he just doesn’t have enough gas left to reach the finish line (even if he’s still fairly effective). I think he ends up between 270 and 275.
TechnicalDecision160
Not with the kind of run support we historically give him…
bordomsdeadly
He’s said he wants to pitch until he’s 45 as long as he « doesn’t suck » but might be willing to hang around a year or 2 too long if he’s « really close to some cool numbers »
So… maybe?
He « only » needs 40 more wins to do it, and he’s got 6 more starts left this season.
Lets just say he gets 4 more (for easy math) that leaves him needing 36 (9 a year over 4 years). If he pitches another 2 years and can stay healthy (Maybe he can, maybe he can’t, I genuinely have no clue) and gets 10 in both years that leaves him needing about 15 and him wanting to pitch another 2 years
If he could get another 15+ win season at 42 like Randy Johnson did, that certainly that would give him 2-3 years to get 20 and he could barely break 300 like Randy Johnson did at 45
Or he could blow out his UCL again tonight and opt to retire. He’s close enough not to be ruled out, but far enough that it won’t be easy.
Juna-the-Moona
If there is anyone on the planet that can pitch well until age 45+ it’s JV.
Gemnist
All I can say is, I’d love to see him try.
gilliganian83
He’s gonna need 2-3 mostly healthy years where he’s still good, so I think it’ll depend on his health.
24 Comments
Justin Verlander will turn 42 before the start of next season. He also eyes the « big shiny number » of 300 career wins. As he takes the mound Monday with 260 wins on his ledger, is the future Hall of Famer’s goal even plausible? Verlander needs 40 more wins to hit 300, and this season he’s only started 11 times and earned a win in 3 of them.
The last pitchers to enter the 300 win club this century are:
– Randy Johnson (303)
– Tom Glavine (305)
– Greg Maddux (355)
– Roger Clemens (354)
No. He’s probably got one more season in him and hasn’t won more than 20 in a season since 2019.
No effing way.
Very unlikely, but after Pujols had a renaissance with the cardinals and got to 700, I’ll think anything is possible
Sure, he just needs to start managing instead.
Take over the White Sox and he can get those last 40 by 2026.
No.
It really really sucks that he effectively lost all of 2020 and 2021. If he hadn’t, he would very likely be somewhere in the 290s today and it would be a no doubter.
No. If this was the late 1990s or early 2000 maybe. The game has changed too much for him to be 20+ game winner effective.
After 2019, he needed 75, and he had averaged 15 a year up until that point. Five more years, maybe six if his pace slipped a bit, finish in his age 41 or age 42 season? Easy.
Well, it’s been five years now, and he’s still 40 short. Can he pull three more vintage JV seasons out of his hat? I kinda doubt it. COVID won’t happen again, but injuries will.
He’d have to Jamie Moyer it for like 4-5 seasons. Don’t think he has that in him but the allure of the 300 dub club might be too tempting.
Maybe if he learns a knuckleball. Otherwise, no.
He will if he wants it. He has enough in the tank to pitch a few more years, and enough name value to keep his name in a rotation even if hes below average. But it all depends on if he wants to pitch that long.
Probably not, but he’s still going to the hall of fame
no
but maybe?
it’s not impossible
Maybe if they were still in the NL Central.
Not likely. He’ll probably try to pitch on and off till he’s 44 or 45, and top out in the low 270s.
I dont thnk he’ll get there man. Man, with this pitch clock and presumed related pitching injuries, 200 wins may be even a reach in the future
He still has good velo on his fastball, if he can have 22+ starts next year I think he’ll be in a good position
I don’t think so.
It’s a tall order, but Nolan Ryan, Phil Niekro, Randy Johnson, Jamie Moyer, Bartolo Colon, and Charlie Hough all put up 40+ wins after age 41. Warren Spahn and Tommy John approached 40. Spahn is the only one of those who is really outside of recent history. That’s a pretty wide range of pitcher types – knuckleballers, finesse pitchers, flamethrowers.
Only Ryan and Johnson were really throwing hard in old age. It does seem that Verlander has lost a little velocity, so he’ll have to adjust, and he’s clearly not the same pitcher he was just a couple years ago.
I think he goes one more year, misses some time, and realizes he just doesn’t have enough gas left to reach the finish line (even if he’s still fairly effective). I think he ends up between 270 and 275.
Not with the kind of run support we historically give him…
He’s said he wants to pitch until he’s 45 as long as he « doesn’t suck » but might be willing to hang around a year or 2 too long if he’s « really close to some cool numbers »
So… maybe?
He « only » needs 40 more wins to do it, and he’s got 6 more starts left this season.
Lets just say he gets 4 more (for easy math) that leaves him needing 36 (9 a year over 4 years). If he pitches another 2 years and can stay healthy (Maybe he can, maybe he can’t, I genuinely have no clue) and gets 10 in both years that leaves him needing about 15 and him wanting to pitch another 2 years
If he could get another 15+ win season at 42 like Randy Johnson did, that certainly that would give him 2-3 years to get 20 and he could barely break 300 like Randy Johnson did at 45
Or he could blow out his UCL again tonight and opt to retire. He’s close enough not to be ruled out, but far enough that it won’t be easy.
If there is anyone on the planet that can pitch well until age 45+ it’s JV.
All I can say is, I’d love to see him try.
He’s gonna need 2-3 mostly healthy years where he’s still good, so I think it’ll depend on his health.