Le mythe de Luis Arraez (article intéressant sur la statistique RE24 et l’OBP nécessaire pour que les simples sans personne sur la base soient précieux)

7 Comments

1. Michael__Pemulis 4 heures ago

   This is an excellent article that makes a compelling & straightforward point.

   TLDR:

   Luis Arraez is not a very valuable hitter with no one on base but is relatively valuable with runners on & him hitting leadoff removes a ton of his value to the lineup.

2. PeatBomb 4 heures ago

   With all that said I wonder why the Padres are so adamant with him batting leadoff.

3. McLovin_1 4 heures ago

   Pretty convincing argument to bat him lower in the lineup. Even if you insist on a traditional power guy in the 3 spot, batting him 5th or 6th would add value to his own and his team’s run production.

4. Wholesome_Award 4 heures ago

   Who should the ideal leadoff guy be? Excellent eye with lots of walks?

   Schwarber is interesting as he has a high OBP and can start a game 1-0 immediately.

   Prime Matt Carpenter could take a starter 10 pitches and force a walk with his plate control.

   perfect leadoff batter needs a combination of those two. your highest .AVG players need to bat in the 2-5 spots

5. RaysFTW 4 heures ago

   I like stats, and advanced stats, but sometimes it’s difficult to wrap my head around them. I’ll admit, while I know AVG is outdated and doesn’t mean too much these days, it’s still difficult for me to understand why someone like Arraez isn’t a player that teams would want to lock down for years and years.

   I think this article made his case pretty clear for the layman like me while also explaining why he could be valuable batting in a different position. Super interesting. I also learned a new stat today that I don’t fully understand but seems really important, RE24.

   Thanks for sharing, OP.

6. xwing_n_it 3 heures ago

   In fantasy terms Arraez is an « empty-batting-average » player who gives you no HR, RBI, or SB to go with the excellent average. In real terms it means he’s going to be overvalued compared to his real contribution. If he either hit for decent power — not even homers but for consistent doubles — OR if he were an excellent base stealer he’d be good in the leadoff spot.

   But he isn’t. And singles with no one on aren’t very valuable. He should be batting somewhere between third and fifth in the lineup so he hits with RISP more often. He can extend an inning if they walk him with RISP and first base open (which is why third is probably ideal). But traditionally hitting third is for one of your best overall bats, so he’s a « leadoff hitter. »

7. immoralsupport_ 3 heures ago

   It’s weird because even by the old school theories of lineup construction, you should have a fast guy hitting leadoff and the contact guy hitting second. And by modern standards, you want OBP (and possibly higher relative strikeouts) in the leadoff spot. Arraez doesn’t fit either of those, so I’m not sure why it seems obvious to some people that he should be hitting leadoff. He’d be better lower in the lineup, even second